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Non-Tech : The Children's Beverage Group (TCBG)
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To: Jaste who wrote (1319)8/4/1998 7:18:00 PM
From: mark cox  Read Replies (1) of 2452
 
Hi Jaste, you asked me the following:

" You are arriving at a figure of .16, I should ask you again, how you are getting this figure without proper financial information. "

I came to that figure by using the information about the 30 million units per year and the $5 to $6 million per machine which came from IR. Also at their site it states the Volpak runs at 120 per minute. I was told by IR that they will run 20 hours per day 6 days per week.

So if you divide $5 million by 30 million units it comes out to $0.166 per pouch. To me this seems improbable, thus my questions about it.

I don't do much speculating with my estimates. I base them on the facts and data that I have. For now the only way to get any numbers to work with is to either talk to IR or to read what is at their site. I have tried calling the company directly but was directed to call IR.

I was told 4 days ago that there were 20.2 million shares outstanding. Yesterday, Calvalry finds out there are over 24 million. That is quite a difference. Personnaly I don't see why everyone is so concerned with just the float. Net income won't be divided by the float, it will be divided by all outstanding. A larger float will create better liquidity and enable institutions to eventually buy this stock.

I am really looking forward to seeing their first 10Q hopefully later this month. Think of this, when we do know their actual margins, revenue per pouch and capacity of each Volpak, a child should be able to predict future earnings for this company simply be knowing how many machines they have and how many they will be adding and when. It should be simple arithmetic.

Hope this answers all of your questions about how I came up with my figures.

Mark
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