The Children's Beverage Group (TCBG) Message Board

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Non-Tech : The Children's Beverage Group (TCBG)

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To: mark cox who wrote (1325)	8/4/1998 7:58:00 PM
From: Ken Berns	Read Replies (2) of 2452

Mark, I totally agree with your comments regarding the float. Almost everyone posting on this thread talks about TCBG as a long term investment, the value of the company is what should be looked at not the size of the float. I think you are correct in attempting to value this company based on how much product can be produced and what the margins will be. You seem uncomfortable regarding the $.16 per pouch gross sales price. The $.16 is the number we have heard from IR and your math supports it. If TCBG wholesales the product for $1.60 (.16 X 10) and the reseller marks it up to $1.99 there is a 24% margin to the retailer. I don't know whether that is reasonable or not. What I would really like to get a handle on is the margin TCBG makes on each $.16 pouch. The numbers I have heard are 10%-20%. Thus at 50-60 million gross sales the EPS would range from 21 cents to 50 cents. Do you have an estimate for the ESP multiplier in the bottling business. TCBG should certainly be substantially higher considering the growth rate.

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