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To: Patrick Slevin who wrote (49247)	8/4/1998 8:06:00 PM
From: Stoctrash	Read Replies (2) of 58727

Fact: On Thursday, July 30, NASDAQ rose more than 2%. The next day, NASDAQ turned around and declined more than 2%. The only other time that has happened was two days before the crash in 1987. Let variable values: theSec = NASD Date Day 1 2 10/22/1987 Thu -2.285 -11.076 07/31/1998 Fri NaN NaN Avg -2.285 -11.076 AvgPos NaN NaN AvgNeg -2.285 -11.076 PctPos 0.000 0.000 PctNeg 100.000 100.000 ================================================== Q: What happens when the Dow declines more than 1% on the day when Mercury enters its retrograde phase? A: 1 week later, the Dow is just over 3.5% lower in 76% of 21 past occurrences. Let variable values: theSec = DJIA Date Day 1w 02/26/1901 Tue -0.015 03/08/1907 Fri -4.553 01/10/1917 Wed 0.940 11/05/1920 Fri -7.092 02/21/1921 Mon -0.160 12/11/1931 Fri 1.331 03/31/1932 Thu -9.662 05/19/1936 Tue 3.234 09/01/1937 Wed -5.610 10/15/1941 Wed 0.033 01/18/1956 Wed -0.461 12/16/1957 Mon -1.228 09/24/1962 Mon -1.880 04/28/1970 Tue -2.014 10/30/1973 Tue -5.726 06/17/1974 Mon -2.028 01/30/1975 Thu 2.549 10/23/1980 Thu -2.316 10/16/1987 Fri -13.173 04/23/1990 Mon -0.372 01/09/1996 Tue -0.817 07/31/1998 Fri NaN Avg -2.334 AvgPos 1.618 AvgNeg -3.569 PctPos 23.810 PctNeg 76.190 Maximum 3.234 Minimum -13.173 StdDev 4.043 ZStat -0.577 Variance 16.349 22 Occurrences A Word on Retrograde Motion of Planets Retrograde motion is typically considered to apply to the apparent motion of a planet in the sky as it orbits the Sun. Normally, planets appear to move in an west-to-east direction from night-to-night. The planets further from the Sun than the Earth reverse their APPARENT direction during the year when the Earth "catches up" to the planet. This is similar to when you pass a car on a highway. The car appears to be moving backwards, even though it is travelling almost as fast as you. The outer planets all exhibit this retrograde motion once each year. Mercury and Venus orbit closer to the Sun, than the earth. Despite this fact, they also appear to be moving west-to-east (normal motion) for about half of their orbit, then east-to-west (retrograde motion) for the other half. Written by Carl Matthews Stanford University Edited by William B. Noble

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