IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : IDPH--Positive preliminary results for pivotal trial of ID

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To: I. Luttichuys who wrote (218)	12/11/1996 10:07:00 PM
From: Brad C. Dunlap	of 1762

Hi Bennett, you sure are quick. Yesterday I was informed verbally and was told to keep under my hat until I saw the actual filing. As a reseult Idec will not be attending the H&Q biotech conference the begining of January. My thoughts are that as the street hears more of their impressive results that it will be a short term negative for Idec's stock. I would agree with you that indeed this has added to the recent weakness in the stock. You sure are on top of things because I did not see anything in print as of today. This is something that I have been preparing myself for sometime and strongly believe that this could provide a real opportunity. When the street initially sees their results they just might assume that this is a superior product. I have been wrong many times but have a strong conviction that C2B8, C2B8/chemo, and YB28 will command the lions share of the nhl mkt. As posted before Coulter uses a monoclonal antibody labled with iodine-131[radiation]. Their previous results are superior to C2B8 but have a greater toxiciy profile due to HAMA responces and the radiation. Coulter's results are about the same as C2B8/chemo but they due have a higher complete response. The approx. additional costs due to the isolation requirements can be $5000-$6000 more then C2B8 as a stand alone treatment. I feel that the majority of nhl patients will initilly request C2B8 due to the low side effects[no chemo and no radiation] and good efficacy. I do feel there will be mkt share that Coulter will capture but will be used after C2B8 for low grade nhl patients. As posted earlier, there is a compelling reason to believe tha Coulter's product could eventually be worthless with the success of YB28. Idec has initiated a phase I/II where nhl patience will be pretreated with C2B8 and then followed with YB28. This should be a powerfull combination and if comparable there would be no mkt for Coulter. YB28 uses yttrium which only emits beta rays that have a much shorter half life then the radiation that Coulter uses and the product is designed to be administered in an out-patient setting. We know how effective C2B8 is as a stand alone therapy and to think that patients will recieve YB28 after C2B8 clears the B-cells should be extremely efficacious. If this is successfull, why would anyone use Coulter's product that costs more, requires isolation requirements due to radiation, and greater side effects[greater hama reponce and radiation toxicities]. Don't missunderstand me, I do believe that initially their will be mkt share for Coulter but in the long run this could be in jeopardy. I'm sure H&Q and Coulter have a lot to be proud of and will spread all info comparing their results to Idecs, however this is not comparing apples to apples and should more appropriatly be compared to YB28. Eric Hecht has stated this point as well. If Idec's stock does continue to move lower, this should create a real opportunity in the long run. By the way I spoke to Coulter at this past weeks hematology conference and they were very secretive about their other products of what I understood are all in very early pre-clinical stages. Their nhl product has just initiated phase III studies for low grade nhl so it appears that their more then 1 year behind C2B8. Bennett, I know that this info is old hat to yourself, but others might not be so familiar.

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