terry,
the disappointment on the street with evista is widespread. most of the analysts have already downgraded their revenue estimates for evista and evista still may not perform to the revised estimates.
therefore, lilly will have to increase revenues in other areas (prozac and zyprexa) just to meet revenue projections. we're talking $100,000,000+ increase just to make up the evista shortfall. prozac's growth has been flat for the last two years, so increased sales here are unlikely. zyprexa may get a boost from pfizer's drug's delayed release. however, zyprexa will unlikely be able to carry the whole load.
other problems loom for Lilly: decreasing insulin sales (one of lilly's major products), disappointing antibiotic sales (they have all but given up on this area), generic competition for their H2 antagonist, and no new major products coming in the next year or so.
add to that the loss of the opportunity to market a potential billion $ non-steriodal next year and you've got a stock that may have a tough time achieving the type of growth the could move it beyond the $60-$70 range.
don't get me wrong, i'm a fan of lilly's and in fact have invested several times over the last year in the stock. however, i think lilly has a tough road ahead of it.
p. chin |
