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Technology Stocks : Disk Drive Sector Discussion Forum

WDC 187.18

+2.9%

Dec 11 3:59 PM EST

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To: Z Analyzer who wrote (4080)	8/5/1998 7:04:00 AM
From: Stitch	Read Replies (1) of 9256

Z, I do not see signs of further deterioration and, in fact, have heard some upside anecdotal stuff recently. But I am very cautious about Asia right now. We haven't begun to see the worse of it IMO. I am expecting another major round of devaluation here which is really going to clamp down on business. Spending will virtually cease IMO. The folks at the computer store I go to say that their business is down 60%. The place I buy video tapes told me today that his business is off 50%. It is very easy to get a parking space at the malls these days. One of our regular posters on the Asia Forum thread spent the earning season posting the statements from cos. that referenced Asia s a cause of lowered earnings. The list seemed endless. Todays street.com newsletter cites Asia as the major cause of our market deterioration over the last two weeks. here is an excerpt: <<Why have things taken such a nasty turn? Despite Tuesday's big drop, things have been ugly for the past couple of weeks. Profit-taking seems to be a favorite explanation. Also, concerns about profits going forward have received a lot of attention. Even the president's highly publicized dance with the independent prosecutor is getting votes for the cause of the current downturn. But the real reason is not such a mystery: It's all coming right out of Asia.>> It goes on to conclude that eyes have to be on Japan right now. It also noted that Canada, Brazil, and Mexico have all come down with the asian contagion. Can the U.S. be far behind? While earnings were sketchy they were still failry good. And interest rates are low. Employment is still high. If Asia could show a turn then we might be able to avoid the mess. But I am not at all optimistic. Japan seems hopelessly bogged down in the same old morass. Many of asia's leaders are still in denial...trying to save favored companies instead of commiting to changing the causal roots of the problem. I am beginning to think this is going to be read in the history books right next to Tulipmania and South Sea bubble stories. Best, Stitch

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