In defense of Ralph Acampora..
For those of you who thought Ralph was swiping headlines midday yesterday, lemme drop ya some of his commentary from the July 29, 1998 Prudential Investor Weekly.
He outlines the technical conditions that give cause for concern for the short term market outlook.
1. sentiment reflects too much optimism
2. stock splits have been too numerous... history suggests that an overabundance of stock splits after a major market advance could be a sign of the latter stage of a bull market
3. dow theory is now flashing a secondary correction for the stock market... this signal was given when the djia registered a new closing high of 9337.97 on 7/17/98, but the djta(transportation avg.) failed to better its new high of 3686.02 made on april 16, 1998
<* there's a great graph here>... textbook nonconfirmation.. often leads to a secondary correction
4. breadth stats on all exchanges are very unattractive
he goes onto outline his investment strategy which is bullish on the blue chips, given his 5-10% correction caveat...
I'm biased in favor of Ralph... not just cuz he's always Institutional Investor's top TA analyst for the last several year... but I was really moved when I heard him speak at the Market Technician's Association** annual meeting in san antonio.. it was almost a religious experience where my eyes were opened and i cast off the fundamentalist blinders that my skoolin made me wear...
** (which was totally worth skipping my finals' study time to attend.. esp since I didn't have to cough up the $600 to attend... and I ended up smoking all my finals, 'cept stats, which didn't interest me to the extent that my stats prof failed to apply stats to the casinos and quantitative stock modeling...)
dammit, I dun digressed big time.
The point is that as long as SI has its free membership, I'll keep up my practice of keeping my "transaction costs" low...
here's some not so technical analysis/ ex-post selection fallacy: yesterday was dallas' first non consecutive 100+ temperature day in quite some time... furthermore, the tex rangers had a beanie baby giveaway promotion that got really ugly that day... both would have been clear indicators that a bearish correction was imminent...
Questions for MB and whoever..
Is 8500 the new support? ( I don't think it is)
Will the Abbey Cohen rally prevail or will investors keep selling into whatever gains we make?
Can anyone suggest some good books/websites on option trading/strategy? (I've heard that Larry McMillan's "Options as a Strategic Investment" is a good one)
I'm hearing that the blue chips are the place to be, that small/midz/and god help us the, OTC:BB are a minefield during corrections and their downward bias will continue.... anyone got any thoughts on where to be?? |
