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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (23325)8/5/1998 2:59:00 PM
From: P.T.Burnem  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
I'v changed my mind about bottom fishing

To bottom fish, one must have some idea where the bottom might be.

The market is more overvalued than it was in 1987, and MF cash level is at a record low. The Dow and Russell 2000 have diverged ~2 years ago... We just experienced a classical blow-off, with a handful of stocks surging as though there were no tomorrow, and much of the rest - going south. The complacency is running high: most people are convinced this is going to be a 10% correction. Public participation in the market is at a 30-year high.

The only ingredient for a full-blown bear market that seems to be missing is high and rising interest rates, but maybe we don't need these in a deflationary environment.

PTB
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