QUOTE: FORBES June l998 Investment Guide
ENI's FRANCO BERNABE in ROME
Economist turned oil executive.
Not this year, nor the next, but maybe as soon as five years hence oil prices will start to rise, says Franco Bernabe, chief exec. of the Italian Oil Company ENI SpA. Well before 2010, he believes, the world will be vulnerable to l970s style oil shocks.
Speaking to Forbes in London in early May, he says, "There is a great deal of complacency among politicians and economists that the oil problem is over. But despite today's low prices, in the long term we will be back to a high-price scenario in the oil sector."
(2 page article so I'll get to the end)
"My forecast is that between 2000 and 2005 the world will be reaching peak production from our known fields and after that, output will decline." But demand will keep growing, slowly but inexorable.
Does this mean that oil prices will stay down well after the turn of the millennium and then start to go up? Not necessarily. Once the markets recognize that production has peaked while demand continues to grow, prices could move up in advance of any actual shortages.
If Barnabe is right oil and oil shares should be good investments for those who can take a genuinely long-range point of view. (TX type folks, my insert sm) But there are other, more dire implications. "It will shift the power in the oil market back to the Gulf region," he points out. More than ever, the Middle East will become a potential powder keg for war.
In this article Mr Bernabe explains where all our oil comes from how much and how many very explicity.
Franco Bernabe very much is a different kind of oil man and represents a new breed of European executive. In the late l970's he played a role in breaking the labor unions' stranglehold at the Fiat automobile company, where he stood his ground against both the unions and left-wing politicos. After ENI's management was thrown out for corruption, Bernabe succeeded to the top spot there in l99s. He helped take ENI private (the Italian government is about to reduce its stake to about 40%) and now runs one of the world's biggest oil companies, with $3 billion net in l997 on $35 billion in revenues. He learned to speak English fluently while completing his high school years in Portland, Ord. on an American Field Service scholarship. At 49, this economist-turned-manager, who is credited with turning ENI from state-owned basket case into his country's most profitable, most global company, has become one of the top lealders in a revitalized corporate Italy.
For anyone's interest in the rest of the article private post me with an address and I'll mail a copy, sorry my scanners on the fritz. S |
