Some positive comments for us all:
Wednesday August 5, 2:35 pm Eastern Time
Details of comments by Goldman's Abby Joseph Cohen
NEW YORK, Aug 5 (Reuters) - Goldman Sachs strategist Abby Joseph Cohen, one of Wall Street's most esteemed forecasters, said on Wednesday she is still confident in the U.S. bull market in stocks.
She said stocks are at the bottom end of a choppy trading range. The market may still need time to digest its 25 to 35 percent gains of the four months ahead of April and has overreacted to the threats posed by the Asian fiscal crisis, corporate earnings and inflation, she said.
''Stocks are trading at undervalued levels,'' she said in a note to clients provided by Goldman. Because of the overreaction, she said there is a case to be made for owning stocks.
''In our view, the recent weakness in stock prices has NOT been accompanied by a proportionate fundamental weakness. Specifically, the latest news on the economy and corporate performance have been better than is commonly perceived,'' she said.
In the case of earnings, she said that of the Standard & Poor's 500 operating earnings that have been reported so far, second-quarter earnings are up 5.6 percent. But large write-offs by big-name blue chips, including AT&T Corp. (T - news), General Motors (GM - news), Compaq Computer Corp. (CPQ - news) and others, have obscured some of the positive news.
Cohen pointed out that so far, Goldman's estimates for S&P 500 operating earnings have largely been on target, and then repeated her position that the global economy will stabilize and there will be an acceleration in the second half of the year.
''Even if the global conditions do not improve, we believe that the companies in the Standard & Poor's 500 Index can achieve profit growth of five to six percent this year,'' she said.
On Asia, Cohen said the total impact on the United States is not expected to worsen and that its impact on the dollar has been ''exaggerated''.
She also said inflation remains hard to find. ''Even in labor markets, increases appear limited to profitable service industries in which workers receive incentive compensation,'' she said.
Cohen said she is sticking by her year-end 1998 targets of 1150 for the Standard & Poor's 500 index and 9300 for the Dow industrials. Both are likely to easily surpass her targets, she said. Her 12-month price target for the Standard & Poor's 500 index is 1250.
Traders said her comments, and bullish words from other top analysts at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette and PaineWebber, helped soothe the market after Tuesday's stinging losses.
All three benchmark indices, the Dow Jones industrial average, the Standard & Poor's 500 Index and the Nasdaq, sank more than 3 percent Tuesday. The almost 300 point drop in the Dow was the third largest point drop ever for the Dow, although it was not a milestone drop in terms of percentages.
It was the third time Cohen has stepped in to help stabilize stocks after a serious decline. Analysts said her bullish comments helped stocks recover after its 554-point drop in October 1997 and again in June after fears about the Asian economic crisis sparked a 207-point Dow sell-off.
Cohen's comments provided a foil one day after Wall Street's other most-famous bull, Ralph Acampora, startled markets by switching into the bear camp. Acampora, a strategist for Prudential Securities, said that the Dow could see a 15 to 20 percent correction from its highs.
------------------------------------------------------------------------
|
