Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)

AMZN 229.55

+0.2%

Dec 5 3:59 PM EST

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To: Rob S. who wrote (12673)	8/5/1998 5:32:00 PM
From: TraderDad	Read Replies (1) of 164684

Despite yesterday's fleeting breech of the declining tops line, AMZN resumed its downward course again. A rise today that would have negated the trend did not happen. So far it's pretty close to schedule per my post of last week: >>i don't think we'll see 120 again, and after a couple of days 110 will be a distant memory. Based on past behavior of mania stocks my outlook is as follows: It may hold around 100-110 awaiting AOL's earnings, then drop fast to 90-95 , bounce off the 50-d MA at ~98, hold there for a few days then plunge to 75-80 before the end of the month. Any rallies will not violate the declining trend line. << It did drop fast today, but unfortunately recovered somewhat. I would hope we see 90-95 tomorrow. The reason for an expected sharp drop below the 50-d MA is to give room for a strong rebound from the MA without violating the declining tops line. Jan, I believe the slow steady ramp down IS the method by which the VC's+6 cash out. What better way than a predictable draw down. This keeps the volume up with a stable price range. The volume needs to be there in order to effect the distribution. I believe they really don't want excessive volitility at this point because that brings risk of sharp down swings, and a possibility of an accelerated sell-off. This is uncertainty they don't want. So far, classic behavior. JMO

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