...Ashes, Ashes...we fall...hmmmm, do you think I can get censored from SI for talking to myself too much...
OK, good old Omreht...ya know, I said I'd watch this closely, come end of July, early August, based on the expiration (August) of the Reg D. Haven't been giving it enough time, but I may, now.
ADX/R8 still pushing up, while the price goes down, showing possible dilution still occurring. Chaikin O is now taking a respectable stab at a recovery from ~ -13,000, not incredible, but noticeable (I know there's more of these coming so let's say that'll be NIBN). MACD has leveled off and actually crossed last week. Very flat movement, NIBN. OBV10 still crashing. TRIX was flat there for 3 days, prior to today, watch closely for signs of a turn. Williams AD still falling.
That's it on laggers. Nothing to get too excited about, yet some hints of slowing. It could just be the hard core TT addicts betting the Reg D will expire and save us from Rene-ageddon. Fundamental weaknesses may still affect things beyond expiration of the dilution.
As far as oscillators, CCI has been finding some higher lows the past 2 months, but the tops are also still lower. Ease of Movement has been making a slow turn & is almost ready to cross over 0. it's been a pretty good mirror of the price over the last 3/4, 'tho not something I use often, nor am familiar w/. MFI8 is showing continued reversal, albeit only for the microcosm of the past 2-3 months. Wouldn't put any positive spin on Momentum yet. PSAR still falling. PFE continues @ 0. Pring's back on the positive side, we'll see how much color shows up there in the next few days. RSi w/some higher bottoms since the end of June, but the very overshadowing trend is still down; need it crest 55 to prompt a raised eyebrow. 14,3,3 StochO showing nothing optimistic yet. Combo StochRSI is showing some nice short term higher highs since early May. Would still like to see a more obvious rise on the longer term components. Ultimate O still crashing.
So, oscillators are showing some short term reversals, inside 2-3 months. Certainly nothing to get excited about, yet. Definitely something to watch. August data will show much. If the charts give out again, it should show in the next 2 weeks or so.
I'll try to find GB to swap notes.
How to play? Well, it's probably too late to watch L2, as learned MM behavior would've required observation during the hey day of the Reg D. L2 might still be useful to see who the players are and note any changing behaviors. I would watch the L2 boards for weakness or strength during the day.
W/o L2, take a stake between the spread right now, 7/16 - 1/2. Nibble, and watch how the TA develops. Maybe the micro changes are due to an upcoming PR, financing, etc. So exposure to that news would be good for any measureable pop. Increase the nibbles if reversals continue to form Should be able to bail out pretty much even if they fall apart.
At these low prices, and the Reg D theoretically over in August, the slide really should start to abate. |
