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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 160.36-3.4%3:36 PM EST

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To: Gregg Powers who wrote (13404)8/6/1998 9:59:00 AM
From: tero kuittinen  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
I think limtex has a point. Gregg, Bruce, how dumb are Ericsson? That's the key question here. Would they really be implementing W-CDMA in half a dozen key markets simultanously if they hadn't some way of wiggling out of this impasse? Gregg, I can see how ETSI would want to know Qualcomm's position on IPR even if the IPR is not fundamentally important. If circumventing Qualcomm's patents is expensive the W-CDMA people want to first make a reasonable deal with Qualcomm... and if that is impossible they will try to run around Qualcomm. And now Qualcomm has said that it will play hardball.

What's an average investor to do in this kind of hairy situation? Well, it's pretty simple, really... Owning just Qualcomm seems very risky and hedging your bets by buying Ericsson is morally repulsive. So it's better to execute some sort of hedge by buying stock in a company that is poised to win big no matter what happens; maybe so that Qualcomm proponents would own 70% QCOM and 30% the hedge stock.

The ideal hedge would be some company that is involved in W-CDMA but has also bought licensing from Qualcomm. Some company that builds its own CDMA chips and is a leading GSM manufacturer as well. Some company that is secretly preparing a worldphone incorporating both GSM and CDMA. Some company that will unveil new CDMA handsets in USA in the first half of 1999 based on a wildly popular new handset platform. Now, if only I could think of a suitable candidate...

Tero

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