This post (#5703) deserves another read, and some thought.
I have looked again at the "Current Estimates" portions of the Standard & Poor's "Company Report" on Novell, Inc., back in September, and this morning. Standard & Poor's estimate averages, as at 9-13-96, report avg. est. for 1997 earnings of $.85, with a high est. of $.95, and a low est. of $.70, gathered from 12 analysts.
As at 11-30-96, the same report lists average est. for '97 of $.89, with high est. $1.71, and low est. of $.65, gathered from 16 analysts.
Opinions are diverging. More analysts are following the stock (or, the S&P reporter called more people for the Nov. 30 report).
If one were managing a large brokerage house in these circumstances, one would be tempted to induce a low or lowered earnings estimate for 1997, at the same time buying the stock for inventory. In 9 months, as year-to-year comparisons shone, and the stock "Outperformed" (whatever THAT is!), one might be further tempted to unload that inventory at a profit. Heck, that is what the people on this Board intend to do, and they don't even own a brokerage house!
On the other hand, I would like to know who the outlier is at $1.71, and why she thinks so. And, I would like to know who the 16 analysts are, and why no more reports are available than are. Does anyone know who these analysts are ??? |
