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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack -- A Complete Analysis

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To: bobby beara who wrote (14059)	8/6/1998 10:32:00 AM
From: Tom Trader	Read Replies (1) of 42787

Hi BB--it has been a while since we talked Your posts re the bear that is on us, got me out of the hibernation that I have been in for the past several weeks:) Seems like old times -- on the Kahuna thread:) Some comments on your post: >>The essence of a trader is to SEE the future. NOPE-- the essence of a trader--at least a good one -- is to let the market guide you. No one can see the future -- and one should not try, IMO. >>Today the economy is fine, but A STUPENDOUS AMOUNT OF EVIDENCE is there that it won't be in 6-12 months.<< Now tell me what the stupendous evidence is --specifics-- that the economy will not be in fine shape in 6-12 months. I don't disagree with you that the market is vulnerable--a valuation issue; I have felt that for over a year and, if you follow my posts, you will know that I have been substantially in cash since August 97. In so doing, I was lucky to miss the October decline and also missed the run-up this year. Such is life. Have continued to trade the S&P500 futures and gone from long to short --and vice versa--many times over the past year even as I have been in cash. Am flat as of now. As for whether we are in a bear market as of now--IMO, the jury is out. Besides I think that these nomenclatures are somewhat meaningless. The small caps have been in a bear market for a while now as has the oil sector and the semis -- as additional examples. I know that you have cited the Dow Theory sell signal several times. What would be interesting would be to know how many times, since the the theory was first advanced has the signal been on target vs off. Re the wave theory, I know that you agreed with me some while back that the problem with Ellioticians is that it is all a matter of interpretation. IMO, the market is near a bottom of sorts -- whether it is a sustainable bottom is more questionable. I suspect not. The sentiment #s do not support a good bottom being in place so I suspect that we will see a rally that will fail and then we will head down again. Whether we will head much lower remains to be seen. I am not really in a position to post much at SI for now -- so if you do respond and you don't hear from me, you'll know why. I was planning on not posting until mid-August, but your provocative comments got me going:) Take care

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