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Technology Stocks : Year 2000 (Y2K) Embedded Systems and Utilities

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To: John Mansfield who wrote (55)8/6/1998 2:31:00 PM
From: John Mansfield  Read Replies (3) of 89
 
PacifiCorp - 'My actual experiences contradict the Jacobi plant age assumptions and =
Skip's chip count projections.=20

In today's electricity generating world, the age of the concrete and =
steel in a power plant is no longer an indication of the quantity and =
quality of the monitor and control devices (embedded chips) being used =
in the plant. In the PacifiCorp collection of generating facilities one =
of the older steam plants (50 years old) has the most up-to-date Bailey =
Controls digital master control system -installed about 3 years ago. =
Looks can be deceiving and in this case a poor basis for projections.

Some of the primary reasons for embedded chip devices, they never get =
tired, catch colds, or get distracted - except for those with this "year =
2000 date" problem. Until now all of the previously noted attributes =
have greatly contributed to the effectiveness and efficiencies of =
individual monitor and control functions needed to keep the large plants =
operating smoothly, while meeting the demand for electricity to keep the =
world lit up and moving.

Over the years, very few of the 16 steam plants and 53 hydroelectric =
plants in the PacifiCorp inventory remain as so called =
electro-mechanically controlled - there is too much of an advantage to =
not upgrade to new devices monitored and controlled through digital =
boards. Most of the plants operate with a token ring type of data =
highway moving data across three distinct levels of process control =
cards.

Level 1 cards are usually attached to the actual device (valves, pumps, =
motors, sensors) with very specific and limited program routines and =
most times they may have a clock but seldom any century/calendar =
sensitivity. In most of the Level 1 devices I saw tested and the chip =
register specifications I checked this is what happened. Seconds rolled =
into minutes, minutes rolled into hours, hours rolled into days, days =
rolled into months and months rolled into years - all two digit numeric =
fields. There was no century sensitivity, no concern for date specific =
holidays, no logic reacting to specific dates, just a boring, consistent =
clock counter incrementing and then rolling to the next level. When the =
defined limit for each counter was reached the counter reset to the =
correct base number: seconds at 60 reset to 00; minutes at 60 reset to =
00; hours at 24 reset to 00; days logically after 28, 29, 30, 31 reset =
to 01; months at 12 reset to 01; and years at 99 reset to 00. In a =
typical steam plant there may be a few hundred of these cards, =
identifiable through device specifications and systems control diagrams.

Level 2 cards were usually collectors for a series of Level 1 cards =
monitoring a collection of devices and reporting or passing data across =
the highway to the major systems control programs (SCADAs). This the =
first level that we did find century sensitivity in programs and data =
files - but nothing that cannot be corrected. At this level the number =
of boards drop down to the tens, identifiable through area systems =
control diagrams.

Level 3 cards were the major systems control programs for areas such as =
fuel supply systems, steam boiler systems, turbine control systems. =
These systems are the primary interface for plant operators today, but =
they can be overridden and manual controls can be invoked. Typically =
these boards were limited to 3 for each generator turbine in an =
installation. Our largest generating plant had 6 turbines. Steam plants =
are the more complex systems, hydroelectric plants require less control =
systems.

Based on our local plant's Year 2000 closed loop process testing and =
manufacturer device specifications less than 5% of the installed chips =
were century sensitive, hence my difference of opinion with the very =
large projection of the numbers of chips to be tested and in turn the =
massive number of hours to complete the testing. Our project teams are =
not finding those sorts of numbers, in fact considerably less. I =
realize there is always a danger when making generalizations, so I =
caution the reader to remember these comments are based on experiences =
at one electric utility and I am not trying to make a position statement =
for the industry as a whole, but.....

Remember the watch word for the PacifiCorp Year 2000 project teams is - =
"keep the lights on for our clients, our partners, our communities and =
our employees".

Wayne Horscroft - a recent retiree from PacifiCorp
Personal questions by email welcome - orkiwi@gte.net
_____

'Date: Wed, 5 Aug 1998 12:42:56 +0100
To: year2000-discuss@year2000.com
From: "Y2K Maillist (Via: Amy)" <amy@year2000.com> Save Address Block Sender
Subject: re: Electric Power Grid - Projections
Reply-To: year2000-discuss@year2000.com

From: "R Wayne Horscroft" <orkiwi@gte.net>
To: "Y2k Mail List" <year2000-discuss@year2000.com>
Subject: re: Electric Power Grid - Projections
Date: Mon, 3 Aug 1998 00:56:12 -0700
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