Thanks for the update.
I'm not sure about "apparent military preparations" in Russia -
not likely, given the mess they now have. The Army is in the mess, ...
The fact that the market refused to bounce does not look good.
I'm not sure IMF policies and the fact the loan was accepted was
the best long-term solution. It looks like Russia is spending
all the money to pay its debts. This leaves nothing for
the workers. What's even more dangerous - the army was not paid for
months. In one Russian city an officer protested in a tank. The
authorities got another tank to quiet him, but the local residents, who also were not paid for months, joined. When there is no
government support for the Army, a military uprising is possible.
The situation is potentially explosive. It looks like the IMF plan
was not the best solution - it was probably better to let the ruble
slide or GKO default. IT seems also the IMF loan is not enough
to solve the current debt situation; the taxes are lower than loan payments. The government uses special forces
to crack down on TAX debtors. But because of chronic non-payments
everybody knows where the money is going - in certain pockets,
not funding schools, etc, and regard new tax law as a new attempt
to rob the population (there has been quite a few such attempts;
the most successful - the hyperinflation; the government earned its
mistrust- for example, in 1990 they decided to change all the
bank-notes, giving the population 3 days to exchange the money;
of course, there was a huge rush). Actually, all the taxes go to
pay the debts by the population on the money which went in certain
pockets. If the government does not change its pro-$$ anti-social,
policies, the next president could well be a general (Lebed' is the
most likely candidate). I'm afraid the failure of the liberal
experiment in Russia will have very bad consequences for
Europe and the West. Russia can fairly quickly become very
dangerous under a new dictatorship |
