Post from PMCS thread. ASND/Cascade doing better than CSCO/Stratus
Talk : Semiconductors : PMC-Sierra (PMCS)
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To: Billy Joe (2040 )
From: Trader Dave
Thursday, Aug 6 1998 10:13AM ET
Reply # of 2046
My point exactly, it would be illegal for montgomery to do this, they just facilitate trades, no brokerage firm is long any kind of small tech stock in this environment.
I spoke to clark yesterday, his initial note used language that said "Our estimates are unchanged at this time." he didn't mean to imply that his estimates were at risk, but let me tell you, that is normally code for, "We're not cutting estimates now, but we're going to later." I lost my lunch when i heard the text from this internal note. (Actually I lost some office furniture, but that's another story.)
His comment in the second half of the day observed that in his worst case scenario, his september estimates weren't at risk and december was at most a penny at risk. that's if december bookings for networking products are at the same anemic level sequentially
as they were in 1997.
Here's what he's missing in comparing 1997 to 1998. Last year, there were higher hopes for LAN based ATM success and ascend and cisco expected a rapid ramp up in WAN ATM. As we all know, LAN ATM has been weak and WAN ATM started taking off a tad later than expected.
This year is different, expectations for LAN ATM are modest and WAN ATM is doingwell. However, I think cisco/stratus isn't doing quite as well as cisco hoped ... the reason for the so called inventory adjustment already in the estimates. Ascend/cscc is doing very well and that offsets things for pmcs. We're going to do some work on PMCS' relationships with their customers to find out about ordering patterns and how far in advance their customer place orders.
TD |
