Global Intelligence Update
Red Alert
August 7, 1998
Russia and Uzbekistan Worried by Taleban Offensive
Russian and Uzbek officials held an emergency meeting on August 4 in
Tashkent to coordinate a response to the recent military offensive launched
in northern Afghanistan by the Taleban army. The fundamentalist Taleban,
who control Kabul and more than two thirds of Afghanistan, are attempting
to take Mazar-e-Sharif, the last major stronghold of opposition forces in
the north. In a strongly worded statement, Russia and Uzbekistan warned
the Taleban to "immediately terminate" their military advance, and declared
that they "reserve the right to take all the necessary measures to
strengthen security of external borders." The two countries called on the
Taleban to begin negotiations, and Uzbek Foreign Minister Abdulaziz Komilov
said that Russia and Uzbekistan stood ready to take part in the talks.
The Taleban rejected the Russian and Uzbek "irresponsible assertions," and
warned the two countries not to stand in the way of their campaign to win
control of northern Afghanistan. In an official statement released on
August 6, the Taleban said "The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan condemns the
statement of Russia and Uzbekistan and considers this as gross interference
in Afghan domestic affairs." An official Taleban spokesman stated that,
"in the present circumstances," the Taleban would not consider a negotiated
settlement with the opposition, and that northern Afghanistan will "be
liberated by military means alone." The spokesman continued, "The only
thing acceptable to us would be a complete cessation of resistance and
Taleban's enemies giving themselves up."
Even if inclined to seek a negotiated settlement, the Taleban are unlikely
to submit to Russian mediation, as they accuse Russia (with Uzbekistan and
Iran) of providing arms, training, and logistical support to the opposition
United Islamic Front for the Salvation of Afghanistan (UIFSA). In an
interview this week with the Pakistan-based "Afghan Islamic Press," Taleban
leader Mullah Mohammad Omar asserted that Russia's support for the anti-
Taleban forces would bring "serious consequences."
Reports out of northern Afghanistan differ predictably by source, but the
UIFSA has admitted that the Taleban are now within 10 miles of Mazar-e-
Sharif, fighting in the town of Balkh, just west of the city. The
Taleban's main offensive is coming from the west, though Taleban forces are
reportedly at least 100 miles from Mazar-e-Sharif to the south and east.
Even based on reports from the UIFSA, transmitted via Iranian radio, the
fighting is not going well for anti-Taleban forces.
Though UIFSA representatives have denied that military leader General Abdul
Rashid Dostum fled to Uzbekistan on August 4, Iranian radio has reported
that UIFSA leaders have given command of all of their forces to Ahmad Shah
Massoud, the defense minister of the ousted former government. Dostum fled
to Turkey last year, just before the Taleban overran and briefly held
Mazar-e-Sharif. In an attempt to downplay the threat to Mazar-e-Sharif, a
UIFSA spokesman on August 4 said that hundreds of new forces had arrived in
the city over the previous 24 hours from Bamian, Balkh, and Sar-e Pol
provinces. However, as these are also provinces in which the UIFSA claims
to fiercely combating the Taleban, and which the Taleban claim to have
conquered, the reinforcement of Mazar-e-Sharif sounds more like the results
of the widespread retreat of UIFSA forces.
Judging from Taleban claims, the Taleban are not only targeting Mazar-e-
Sharif, but are also attempting to cut off supplies to the UIFSA from Iran
and the Central Asian Republics. The Taleban claim to have captured
Ankhoyee, in Faryab province, cutting off the road to Turkmenistan. They
also claim to be advancing on Hayratan, near the Uzbek border. The Taleban
have also reportedly captured Shebarghan, whose airport was used by Iranian
aircraft for the delivery of loads of arms and ammunition to the UIFSA.
The Russian evaluation of the situation can be inferred from the emergency
meeting in Tashkent, as well as from comments from Russia's Border Service
commander. Russia maintains some 25,000 soldiers along Tajikistan's border
with Afghanistan. The Director of Russia's Federal Border Service, Nikolai
Bordyuzha, said on August 6 that there was a genuine threat of Taleban
forces advancing toward the border with Tajikistan, and that "appropriate
instructions have already been given to forestall an advance by Taleban
fighters." He said that border troops are prepared not only to repel
Taleban incursions, but also to prevent an influx of refugees and
retreating anti-Taleban troops.
Whether Russia, Iran, or the Central Asian republics will actively
intervene in Afghanistan is unclear, and there are substantial arguments
against such a move. Afghanistan has the same meaning for Russia as
Vietnam does for the United States. Iran does not wish to devote military
resources to its eastern border at this time. And the Central Asian
republics are not equipped to take on Afghanistan alone. Finally, even if
they succeed in overwhelming the UISFA, the Taleban are unlikely to press
into neighboring states, as they will have enough to deal with, battling a
certain and interminable guerrilla opposition.
One certainty does emerge from the Afghan conflict. Regardless of the
outcome at Mazar-e-Sharif, Russia has quite boldly used the situation to
set a precedent. Under the thin facade of the Commonwealth of Independent
States joint defense mechanism, Russia is making a stand at the border of
the old Soviet Union. Not even pretending to act at the behest of the
Central Asian states, Russia is behaving as if the old borders and old
imperial responsibilities are intact. Russia has reestablished that it has
a fundamental and necessary strategic role to play in Central Asia -- a
role it will more actively and aggressively take on in the near future.
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