Dan,
I like your optimistic numbers. There is no warranty this stock will
get up past 50 but this stock does have the potential to get that kind
of high valuation given the right conditions at the right time
(coverage by well known brokers, excellent earnings, OEM deals with
Intel or Fujitsu, strong market, even hype from giga switch ...).
This company also seems to be very tight lipped. For example last
quarter, they play down the relationship with Intel to the public
while they actually have a very strong tie with Intel. May be
they are working a deal with Fujitsu but they won't say anything until
the deal is finalized. I check the Fujitsu web site and it seems that
Fujitsu is very strong in the network area.
Next week, if the institutions buy a lot of MRVC, then it means MRVC
has told a lot more to the institutions than they have told us. For
those of you who jump in and out of this stock frequently, you may
miss the boat completely when something good get announced. Remember
a few weeks ago, the stock jumped 3-4 points on the news with Intel.
Let say a major deal with Intel or Fujitsu is signed and the news is
announced after the market closes, the stock can easily jumps 5 points
the next day. How much money do you think you can make by getting in
and out of this stock frequently with the risk of missing the boat?
May be at the most 1 point at a time after taking into account the
spread between bid and ask. The earnings report is about 6 weeks from
now and to me that's not a very long time. A minimum gain of 50% in
6 weeks is not bad for me. I would rather invest long in strong
companies such as MRVC and have a few sure gains like that every few
months and end up with a few hundred percent gain per year for my
entire portfolio rather than getting a bunch of mickey mouse gains
and some huge losses every once in a while because I pick the wrong
stock. Remember a 50% loss is equivalent to a 100% gain to get back
your original money.
Go on and dream with me, Dan. My goal for 1997 is at least 200% gain
for my entire portfolio. Let see, 50% return every four months will
give me 337% return for the year compounded !!!!
That's all for my two cents.
Mike. |
