They note also that smallcap and midcaps are outperforming the large caps today...
Is it my mistake or did a lot of people suddenly get bullish on semi-equips? I've seen lots of news articles posted on SI in the last week indicating it's time to jump back in. I'm a non-believer still. I, and others, posted several conditions that were necessary (we believed) to indicate a bottom had been put in. Things like, analyst downgrades, turnaround in the Book/Bill, M&A activity, big time insider buying, fab closures, business failures (well, that was my list anyway). By my reckoning, not enough of the those events have occurred yet. We've seen some downgrades, but no one threw in the towel. The Book/Bill is well below 1. 1 or 2 Fabs have been closed (what do we need, at least 5?). No one has gone chapter 11. LRCX has not been bought <wink>. I continue to hear rumors of further downsizing at AMAT and LRCX from friends in the valley. My friend who consolidates un-used office space for LRCX (in preparation for leasing the space to others) says he has plenty of business, with more coming. My friends at AMAT say that no job is safe, today.
So I have to close my eyes, grit my teeth, and swim against the stream (again). Bought more AMAT Oct 32.5 puts today.
I seem to remember last year that the last index to move up before the mini-melt was the Russell 2000.
Good luck to the bulls, you deserve some after the ride you've had...
F. |
