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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna
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To: Peter Singleton who wrote (23590)8/7/1998 12:02:00 PM
From: Philipp  Read Replies (1) of 94695
 
Hi Peter:

All of you confident folks out there, all of you folks who
know how to read the charts, what are your tea leaves telling you?


This is what my tea leaves tell me (actually I am a coffee drinker):

The rally we are seeing is the rally the market has been begging
for and was almost bound to happen since there is still too much
bullishness in the market. I was a heavy buyer of calls on
Wednesday and watched them nervously yesterday (pretty safe now).

What will happen next? There are the two possibilities you
mentioned already.

1. The rally before the crash (breaking the buy-the-dip mentality)

2. The rally starting the next leg up.

I think it will be relatively easy to decide which one it will
be. If the rally peters out before/around 8900 (Dow), 1120 (SPX)
and turns over, it is likely to be 1. Once something like
8400 is broken on a day-end basis, you have a strong crash signal
(at this stage the dipsters will have been hurt severely).

If it goes beyond 8900, it could rally for a while, though
a significant correction may only be delayed by a few months.

Timescale? Could be as early as this afternoon or as late as
the end of next week.

Good trading,

Phil

P.S.: My guess is that it will be 1., since I am convinced that
some of the big players have decided to sell already.
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