16 Mb 4Mx4 EDO rose over 11% on the week!!!!!
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05:45pm EDT 7-Aug-98 Montgomery Securities (J. Joseph 415 627-2925) MU INTC TX
DRAM Pricing Update: Firming Trend Continues
NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY***NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY***NATIONSBANC MONTGOMERY
DRAM PRICING UPDATE
August 7, 1998 SEMICONDUCTORS
Jonathan Joseph (415) 627-2925
Claude Hazan (415) 627-2845 DJIA: 8598
S&P 500: 1089
NMSGI: 117
Firming Trend Continues
DRAM prices mostly up in the week. We found in our weekly survey that
64Mb 8Mx8 SDRAMs rose another 5% on the week, while high-end 64 Mb PC-100s
(100MHz) rose 1% and 16Mb SDRAMs were flat. The less mainstream 16 Mb 4Mx4 EDO
rose over 11% on the week. We believe the production holidays out of Korea and
recent fab shutdowns in Europe and the U.S. are making PC OEMs increasingly
concerned about supply as they continue to see stronger than expected demand in
July and early August. As a result, DRAM supplier lead times have stretched
from off-the-shelf to six weeks over the last two weeks and spot market prices
for virtually add DRAM product have risen. Inventories remain at very low
levels, both at the supplier and buyer side, suggesting spot prices could move
higher if demand remains strong. Reports of accelerating demand are being
supported by industry data, which shows bit growth in June accelerated to 79%,
up from 72% in April, according to the SIA. These trends are not only a
positive for our PC-oriented device companies, like Micron* (MU, $34-1/4,
BUY) and Intel* (INTC, $86-11/16, BUY), but are also probably a harbinger
to come in the DSP and analog segments, which include Texas Instruments
(TXN, $63-13/16, BUY), Semtech* (SMTC, $16-3/8, BUY) and Micrel*
(MCRL, $35-7/8, BUY).
Recent PC-66 DRAM Pricing
16 Mb 64 Mb
4Mx4 EDO 2Mx8 SDRAM 4Mx16 EDO 8Mx8 SDRAM
% % % %
Price Change Price Change Price Change Price Change
6/1/98 $1.55 $1.69 $8.72 $8.00
6/5/98 $1.55 0% $1.69 0% $8.72 0% $7.84 -2%
6/12/98 $1.55 0% $1.49 -12% $8.83 +1% $8.34 6%
6/19/98 $1.55 0% $1.49 0% $9.23 +5% $8.64 +4%
6/26/98 $1.50 -3% $1.53 +3% $8.78 -5% $8.27 -4%
7/6/98 $1.44 -4% $1.44 -6% $8.98 +2% $8.11 -2%
7/10/98 $1.44 0% $1.44 0% $8.81 -2% $7.98 -2%
7/17/98 $1.44 0% $1.44 0% $8.60 -2% $7.88 -1%
7/24/98 $1.44 0% $1.44 0% $8.45 -2% $7.83 -1%
7/31/98 $1.49 +4% $1.78 +24% $8.64 +2% $8.68 +11%
8/7/98 $1.65 +11% $1.78 0% $8.64 0% $9.13 +5%
Source: NationsBanc Montgomery Securities LLC, American IC Exchange
Recent PC-100 DRAM Pricing - 64Mb
8Mx8 SDRAM 16Mx4 SDRAM
Price % Change Price % Change
7/13/98 $9.50
7/17/98 $9.59 1%
7/24/98 $9.59 Flat
7/31/98 $9.59 Flat $9.80 Flat
8/7/98 $9.69 1% $9.80 Flat
Source: NationsBanc Montgomery Securities LLC,
American IC Exchange |
