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Technology Stocks : Orckit (ORCT)

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To: Doug Soon who wrote (1424)8/7/1998 10:11:00 PM
From: Neal Hopper  Read Replies (2) of 1998
 
Doug, I thought that the equip vendors would lead the way early (open the pipes)then content providers. Wrong, ever heard of a company called Yahoo.

In hind sight, I expected to much from the telco and cable companies to see what we see. Thanks to the content providers and exceptional revenue growth they have experienced this year to focus the sluggish telcos.

I looked at the problem from the end. The part of the network that needs the most attention. But the truth is the backbone people will be a huge benefactor. I listed to the conference call after the Tellabs/Ciena merger. The whole focus of the call was on the effect of opening up the all the endpoints to data distributions of 1.5mb to 8mb.

Ecommerce will change the way goods and services are distributed. In time the net will be the greatest event that ever happened to consumers. Low barriers of entry will create very efficent corporation structures. Low cost means of distribution. Everything favors the consumer. I think it is early to pick winners here. Yahoo, Amazon, AOL are they long term winners???

My ADSL play ===AT&T Fund (ATF)..This is a closed end fund that has keep in form the OLD AT&T stock. SO when you buy a share you are buying all the RBOCs any investment they have spoon off and any investment AT&T has spoon off. This is a weighted investment so the price behaves in relation to the price action on the RBOCs. This fund has outperformed the market since the decree in 82.

Sound boring. But think about. The telco has a new product in the pipeline=consumer bandwidth. Manna from heaven. Second, the advances in fiber (DWDM) are a blessing in disguise. They allow the phone co to increase capacity by a factor of X without spending the real dough. I would look for DWDM in a short run solution. SO what I am saying is phone co are going to able to sell a product that will that have extrememly favorable return to investment.

Browning manufactures firearms. The Citro is a excellent Over/Under shotgun that is extremely expensive.
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