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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN)
AMZN 229.10-1.4%3:59 PM EST
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To: Rob S. who wrote (12824)8/7/1998 11:40:00 PM
From: Bill Harmond  Read Replies (2) of 164684
 
>>My guess is that Amazongonenuts.com will rise up toward 120-122 as the intra-day high and then down toward 114 for the close.

>>Amazongonenuts.com may have a couple days to the upside on a market rally but I expect it down to at least the 100-105 level by the end of next week. General market weakness could cause AMZN to move down to the 90-95 level. It may take well into the fall for the drop to the 70 level, IMO.

>>We may get a last gasp day-rally to sell against but the momentum has fizzled.

Rob, Seems you're swinging your bat wildly here. Lately I'm reading a half-dozen changing intraday scenarios by you on how far and when this stock will decline. Like a few of your earlier accounting- or trading-related conspiracy theories these evolving predictions come across to me as shots in the dark.

Do you chart this stock off-line? Do you apply any indicators to it? Have you looked at on-balance volume?

I'll be the first to admit that I don't know where Amazon will trade near term, though I'm encouraged by its intermediate higher lows and highs, and the accumulation evident in on-balance volume. The sense I have is that it will settle down some and work higher over time. There is plenty of potential buying in this brew, and Amazon is a high-visibility issue.

Longer term, I think Amazon is a great high-risk high-reward investment, just like it has proven to be to date. I think the best way to deal with this opportunity is to take a small long position, and add to it on weakness.
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