JW CB,
>> Spiny, my Asian boxing match began in 1997
If I understand you correctly from your earlier "round 3 of 15" comment, you are implying 5 years before this crisis is over. 5 years from now, those who bought semis (and Asia) now will be quite glad they did.
Remember that even in the Great Depression, peak to trough was 3 years for American stocks. Re Asia, most of the "Tigers" have been declining 18-24 months and nearly every bourse is down over 50%. Re semis, we are a year in. Severe bear markets have already occurred. (emphasis on past tense)
IMHO, the worst of the decline is over, and we are closer to the end than the beginning. Its even possible we've bottomed already. If this is incredibly naive, so be it.
Regards
spiny
PS. You worry too much. I realize that a man with your vision has lots to worry about. There is always a new crisis like Eastern Europe and the Russian market crashing, sending an inexorable wave of deflation across the Atlantic....
Come on - 15 years ago, those places didn't even HAVE markets.
Now if you want worries, back in the late 70s and early 80s, we (or at least Reader's Digest anyway) actually worried about things like "the iron curtain" and "the evil empire". Russian tanks and infantry were poised at the Elbe if I recall. Now those were (at the time) real worries. Now you worry that they will overrun us with cheap raw materials, not T60s, Mig-29s and MIRVed ICBMs.
Some of us think that the collapse of communism and the rise of a market based system (and democracy) is a really (REALLY!) good thing - for those who have been emancipated, and I'd venture to guess, for the rest of the world economy too. |
