Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 313.15

-4.7%

2:44 PM EST

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To: Paul V. who wrote (22674)	8/8/1998 12:45:00 AM
From: Big Bucks	Read Replies (1) of 70976

PV, Paul said: "BB, I do not think that we will reach the low 20's from here nor $26. But, AMAT has fooled us before." The earnings release is after market close on Tuesday. You will probably be able to hear a pin drop during the conference call, any sign of uncertainty or projected long term weakness (>6-9 months) and I wouldn't want to be standing near the exits. Based on Morgan's comments in July during semicon about industry uncertainty and zero new fabs being built, it will be hard to put much of a positive "spin" on the situation (in less than a months time since those comments). I suspect focus will be on future potential beyond 2000, if so, will funds and investors be willing to tie up resources and wait for 12-18 months before realizing future gains on their investments?? If the funds/institutional investors don't decide to invest further due to the "uncertainty factor" then I see little to no upside, and I consider the downside potential greater than the upside potential at this point, just on industry conditions and Asian currency issues. Keep in mind that we will be getting July's B2B in about another week, that is the wild card that will determine the real condition of the industry at this time, both semi chips and semi equip manufacturers. Waiting patiently for an offer I can't refuse, BB

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