Jach,
<4000 competes with 500 and 550; not likley for both as lu already has pretty good footholds in access concentrator as well as ATM switch; if it happens more for mkt opportunity and fore is a better fit as lu can gain quick mkt penetration into many large enterprise customers and broadens their mkt presence quickly in the data arena>
The 4000 competes but doesn't have the installed base of ASND: AT&T, GTE, NTT, WCOM, etc. In the access concentrator market, LUcy's Livingston line is low end and ASND owns the large ISP's with their Max line. What ATM switch does LUcy manufacture and ship currently? I am under the impression they partner with ASND and NN.
I believe LUcy could and may buy ASND and FORE. I believe it will be ASND before FORE, however. ASND owns the WAN and the margins on the 550 are somewhere around 65%. ASND has the lions share of the carrier market in atm/frame and with the addition of SRA, a strong foothold into all RBOC's.
Asnd dominates it's markets, and is heavy into the high margin carrier market, where LUcy likes to play.
Fore's true market is the enterprise, and the GRF isn't much of an issue. With NN's alliance with Siemens, its unlikely LUcy will persue it. Fore may be a suitable alternative. The overlap with Yuri may be an issue. Who knows what products are in development.
Regardless, neither will go it alone. Too many suitors, not enough players. It will be an interesting Fall.
Kent
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