Kathleen,
thanks for the post, I personally have never given Handy much weight with his analysis and quite a few others in the DRAM business do not either. He has a point about the die shrinks, and it will depend when
they all kick in, etc. He is totally wrong about spot vs contract, I cant believe he said that it gives his story less credability.
Prices in OEM accounts are stabilized for the moment. Spot well everyone knows spot is $9+ right now for key 8mx8 components way above contract. Even pc66 mhz parts are expensive in the spot. Some including Micron are going to shift some sales from OEM to spot as anyone would be tempted to take more profit after this ugly price free fall. Is it causing a bit of tightness with OEMs probably enough parts out there for normal business, its the upsides of larger quantities of modules that might have a slight lead time.
Sept will be a strong demand month and the Korean continued shut down/cut backs in August and Japanese holidays will help establish a slight lead time for key modules such as 64M and 128M pc100.
It can change, and it will, but I think its a bit tighter or stronger than he depics for this weeks timeframe. Can it remain strong long term, thats really hard for anyone to say yes, it still remains a short term thing, as they said shrinks, number of suppliers out there are all going to try to take advantage of any price premium, while at the same time reduce cost with more shrinks. Most will get down to .21um by December. MU should be able to do pretty well over the next quarter, what price it will end up at, who knows.
Hope you didnt mind my opinion. Good trading.
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