Shampoo vs the real poo
PART ONE: "When two sources of information differ, it is not sufficient to just state that the one you prefer is "correct". How recent is the U.S. EIA data? Can you provide a link on this and state your reasons why you think they are correct and the IEA is incorrect?"
EIA update of "Asian Crisis" dated August 3rd
biz.yahoo.com
The last paragraph of the EIA update summarizes the world oil consumption growth at 1.2 million barrels/day in 1998 more than in 1997 - 300,000 barrels/day (a full third) more than numbers quoted in the article.
PART TWO: On July 1st did OPEC cut 500,000 barrels/day or substantially over 1,000,000 barrels/day?
The OPEC Fact Sheet from EIA shows July 1st production cutbacks quotas as 1.595 million barrels/day. I believe compliance is estimated at least at 80% to as high as 90%.
eia.doe.gov
About Venezuela, they have been in the news this past week because apparently they have fully complied with their 15% cutback quota (and have consequently shut down some 59% of their rigs).
biz.yahoo.com
PART THREE: Is the worldwide supply of oil in July exceeding demand? If the supply of oil were greater than demand it would be a buyer's market and the price would be falling. Since the price of oil has been rising, every single week in July, I conclude the supply is less than the demand, and it is indeed a seller's market.
eia.doe.gov
Why do I trust the US Dept of Energy, Energy Information Administration, EIA, data more than the data compiled by various unknown special interest groups? They have the resources, are most likely to be objective, and are subject to the scrutiny of the public.
In case you hadn't heard the joke, the country cousin was visiting his city slicker cousin who first thing took him to the barbershop to get spruced up. First he got his nails manicured, then his shoes shined. The country cousin began feeling quite spiffy. The barber leaned over and asked him, "Sir, would you like a shampoo?" The country cousin ignored him. The barber, tried again, a little louder, "Sir, would you like a shampoo?" At that, the country cousin stood up and threw down his towel, and said, "Look, if I can't have the real poo, I don't want one."
Best of luck,
Steve |
