Ramsey,
I'm the last person that you should expect to come to the defense of Analysts.
However, when it comes to Abbey Josephs Cohen, she has been consistent, accurate and always credible, IMO, if not somewhat conservative. Her bullish estimates have been exceeded regularly.
You say, ...the above statement is totally false.
You also say, ...What troubles me is bullish comments about Asia are never followed by reasons, data and facts that substantiates that opinion....
Well, let me say, "What troubles me is your comments about Abbey are never followed by reasons, data and facts that substantiates that opinion."
For example, most of the US economy is internal to the US (about 85% I believe). Most of the rest is with Canada, Mexico, Latin America and Europe. The portion that is due to the FarEast has not just disappeared. In fact, in some countries, it continues to grow. If the current crisis is contained to the Far East, then I would fully agree with AJC that "...the menace of the Asian economic crisis and the rise in the dollar have been overblown."
If the crisis is not contained, but spreads unchecked to the rest of the world, then, obviously, nothing has been overblown (with the possible exception of the Clinton - Lewinsky scandal) - Pun Intended.
Re picking up assets cheap now: That's a very different issue than WDC, NKE, Mattel setting up manufacturing in Asia during Boom times. What's happening now is that the Fortune 500 members are picking up prime assets for much less than book from distressed companies.
The global economy has grown since the beginning of time. In recent years, (the last couple centuries), growth occurs in 3 out of 4 years approximately. Another way to state that is that Bulls are right 3 times as often as bears.
Lastly, on changing her tone: yes, if and when that happens, I would expect a short and sharp sell off. But I still don't expect that even a guru such as AJC will change the fundamental reality of economic growth.
I'm surprised that Ralph "Make-me-Poorer" Acampura had as much impact as he did on Wednesday. But based upon Thursday and Friday, the market seems to have returned to business as usual.
FWIW,
Ian |
