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Kahuna...okay I'll give it a go. Position is long approx 3000sh between myself and Family Ltd Partnership averaged approx 7-7 1/4. On the plus side..1) new production facility in place with 50% reduction in production costs. should reflect better on Q3 product margins, 2) per company all product manufactured is shipped thus I assume sold, 3) international scrips increasing with approx 25 new countries pending (time frame unknown), 4) milestones from Astra for international approvals, 5) Alibra in phase III per company with potential advisory board review '99, 6) patented delivery system, 7) one time charge for release of Innovex sales force accounted for in Q2, 8) Committed to seeking domestic sales partner with undertones in Q2 conference of possible outright sale, 9) local application alternative vs systemic, 10) company is followed by some larger brokerage firms creating necessary exposure for small cap, 11) efficacy studies indicating success in more severe ED cases......and in the opposite corner...1) Viagra...company thought the attempted advertising campaign would offset the initial onslaught and they could take on PFE with the internal domestic sales force. A miserable failure and large waste of assets for a fruitless venture. Had the opportunity to join with J&J prior to Viagra introduction but company, with sucess of MUSE launch, was a bit too cocky, 2) Viagra impact domestically (70% scrip fallout) and the unknown impact of Viagra introduction internationally, 3) flat domestic sales and sales force in limbo pending partnership or buyout, 4) quarterly reduction of cash position and current burn rate, 5) pending ED competition on the horizon, 7) patient fear of the urethal application and apparent need of better demonstration to the patient, 8) 40% reduction in shareholder value Q2 '97 thru Q2 '98.... These are a few ideas. I believe the company, as an ongoing concern, can survive on its own. The question is can they turnaround and begin to show sequential growth again and at what level? Or is a buyout in the offing? I suppose we shall see... |
