Papaya,
Yeah, I think Mark Mobius is either very gutsy, insightful, and ahead of the pack in his analysis, or he is invoking some wishful thinking regarding his overseas investments. Perhaps he is trying to steer the market single-handedly. I continue to hear nothing but doom and gloom about Asia. The only good thing to say is that we will likely hear doom and gloom even as the region turns around, not realizing that good times are ahead.
My experience in these market mood swings is that there is a heavy manic-depressive state that the analysts go through. The same set of circumstances can look completely different given the particular perspective of the herd that season. The U.S. was given up for being a second rate economy not long ago. We have survived scares including double digit inflation, oil shortages, fears of the national debt bankrupting us, the savings and loan scandal, fears of Japan buying us out landmark by landmark, etc., etc.
One must keep in mind the size of Asian economies: with the exception of Japan, they are small relative to the strong economies of the West. Japan has serious problems, no doubt, but they have tremendous savings and are a cash rich country as far as I know. They, more than most countries, have the capacity to pull out of this slump. Do they have the will, is the better question. The country is run by bureaucrats who are outside of the political landscape. They are in power for long periods of time and are not accountable to the voters. The Prime Minister has had little power over the bureaucratic management of the economy thus far. The ruling party has a vested interest in the status quo. There is tremendous inertia of thought there. When push comes to shove soon, perhaps they will awaken from their trance.
There is *tremendous* pressure from Washington to break the trance.
Richard |
