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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems:Stocks w/Strong Earnings and High Tech. Rank

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To: LastShadow who wrote (12713)8/9/1998 9:04:00 AM
From: Ron McKinnon  Read Replies (1) of 120523
 
reality check? I have to toss in my 2% here

>>>> 60% in a year? Bummer. One should make at least that a quarter. Position or daytrading.

Last----, there are days in certain stocks that one might make 60%
and some weeks, months, etc

but at some point reality must will out

if one were to start with only $10,000 in a cash (non-margin) account, at a rate of 60% a quarter; at the end of 5 years you would have $121,910,000

starting with say $100,000, you would have $1.2 billion

double the above numbers for a fully leveraged margin account

at a rate of "only" 60% a year compounded, a starting capital of $100,000 would grow to $11mm at the end of 10 years, a growth of 110 times the orig investment, and $1.2 billion at 20 years

all I am trying to point out here is that abnormal rates of return simply can not be maintained consistently for any length of time
much sooner than later the size of ones portfolio, market conditions, traders mistakes, etc, all come in to smack us back into reality

it would be interesting to know what the average 10-20 year rate of return was for the best trader/investor on this planet; but I'm willing to bet that the result pales in comparison to the above

IMHO the best way to make the highest returns over the LONG RUN, is to make a few very good gains from time to time, and to limit all losses to small ones

no matter what the market is doing it is very easy to make profits on selected trades; but it is one of the most difficult things there is to keep from offsetting those gains with losses

only a consistent trading objective that puts the focus on preservation of capital allows one to obtain solid gains over the long haul
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