DJ; RE:" Our Man in Deutschland "
>the projected earnings for 99 are FAR below the market expectation
I have a lot of respect for your sense of geo-economics, professor - and for Jurgen's knack for timing LEAPs as well.
The restructuring of the EU countries' economies towards the greater Euro vision has put in place a structure of fiscal responsibility that has been heretofore unknown in countries like Italy, Spain, Greece and Ireland; perhaps politically impossible (locally) without the pressure of the (global) Union's mandate. I'm also encouraged by the consolidation of US and EU equity markets into one, electronic system.
Two years ago, the concept of "shareholder value" was considered by many EU companies to be an alien, American ethic. I recall the French president talking about the "evils" of kapital gains, "making money while workers sleep" was how he put it. Most European newspapers did not even report the daily prices of their own bourse!
Two years ago, big EU companies like PHG and DAI and TEF and CWZ were considered exotic and inaccessible by most American investors. Most American newspapers did not even report the daily prices of the Nikkei-225, HangSeng, CAC-40 and DAX-30 markets.
I see the twin pillars of fiscal responsibility and global liquidity as inherently beneficial to the EU. That's my longer - term view.
My short-term view you already know: the DAX is -11.3% down at 5500, where there is some support; and -19.4% down at 5000, where there is more. Looks like a trading range will form next. Personally, I think the most likely short-term scenario is to bounce up to near ~5735 to ~5820 or so. ( Then it gets tough! ) Should the DAX just keep on falling on down to ~5000, I'll Load the Boat ! (^_^)
-Steve |
