*** some good news may have factored in the price partially.
Phil,
I've been thinking about your supposition that good news is already factored into Apple's share price. I've also been trying to decide the same thing.
There was a lot of buying last week. The stock seemed to rally off every dip. Still, even though the price continued to rise, the stock seemed to lose momentum later in the week, especially on Friday. The close was nice, though.
This weakness appeared to coincide with the article on iMac production difficulties. There may be a relationship, but Apple also tracked all of boxmakers.
I don't think either factor will show lasting effect on the high tech stocks. Consequently, like you, I believe Apple with resume its upward trend next week with the pending release of the iMac and other products. This is a double whammy which could profoundly affect the stock.
Partly for this reason, I'm not sure much premium is presently discounted in Apple. All year long, this stock has fought negative press and negative vibes (your choice of connotation). Each time, it has surprised and rallied strongly. But some of the negative press is still here, although subdued, and Apple has not yet experienced a speculative explosion on big momentum. It's possible this could occur over the next two weeks approaching options expiry (another factor to ponder--e.g., it would not be difficult in such an environment for the MM's to take the naked position on options contracts above 40, with the intention of surpressing the price late next week). I think Apple probably needs a blowoff, then a correction and some rest. A good time for the rest to occur (I'm a contrairian) is during the wildy expectant period following a huge iMac introduction. Thus, a good time for the explosion to occur is now.
Our goal, should we choose to accept it, will be to guess the high and appropriately hedge in a timely manner. I'm betting on it.
Sam
P.S. Robert Morgan has been uncharateristically silent these past two weeks. Something else to ponder. |
