To All Long Aipners,
I have held this stock since 1/94 and accumulated a significant position over the years at prices from .25 cents to $4.00. The Company has been building toward something big at all times and always coming up with a new angle on what has been a typically weak market sector. The stock ran to $7.00 on hype over Kaz that I knew was overplayed but still was an indication of how investors saw AIPN's prospects for the future related to the Kaz concession. After the irrational exuberance died down the pendulum predictably swung to irrational negativity. Neither extreme has been realistic IMHO. The stock has bottomed out well below a reasonable trading price for reasons that the Company has needed to address and consider as signs of poor management. I refer specifically to the financial management of this cash poor company. To the credit of senior management we have begun to build a real earnings machine in the Asphalt business under Gene Chew.
However , this clearly is not why any one has been drawn to the stock. We have been drawn to the prospects of the last big "Oil Rush" of the coming millennium and the story of how a Lebanese Businessman with his diverse international contacts has positioned his company, through the riskiest form of financing in a risk laden area of the world, into a position to capitalize on a concession that has by everyone's estimates considerable potential to prove large Barrel's of Oil Equivalent Reserves. I know and have listened to all the debates about this and am still a believer that when we start to drill we will prove that there is a lot of money in the ground, transportation of this product aside.
Where we are going seems pretty positive given where we have been. If you assumed that the refinery could conservatively operate at 15,000 barrels/day for 100 days out of the year at a profit of $3.00/barrel you have net revenue next year of $4,500,000. If you calculate the P/E ratio of the company now with 52 million shares at a price of $1.50/share you get a P/E of roughly 17. This is not bad considering this is a business that has attracted no one to this company as an investor. I will not emphasize the inherent deficits in this analysis but suffice it to say there are many on both sides. Notwithstanding, the potential Oil in Kaz is presently valued at zero. I know a lot of people would agree with that valuation but I think it is absurd that an investor can now buy the potential reserves in Kaz for nothing. I also know all the arguments as to why it should be valued at zero and agree with many of them but over reaction is typical of short-term market moves when visibility is low and fear of the unknown is great.
FWIW the recent accumulation of AIPN stock down from $1.50 and up from the low of $1.00 has been impressively staged by MM's who have been historically accurate when it comes to bottoms in this stock.. RMCC has taken down for himself and his clients close to 500,000 shares by my inaccurate estimates, USCT entered at a critical time when the stock was about to break under $1.00 and bought up substantial shares in the range of 100,000 +++. They are apparently an old MM with a new symbol who has been recently acquired by Fleet Bank through a series of mergers. We can not view their behavior in a negative light especially since their new master is Fleet Bank. NFSC (Fidelity subsidiary) has also been liberally buying shares in this $1.00-$1.50 range. We also hear rumored that GF and the BOD is likely to personally fund the Hunt CD redemption out of their own pockets. This is likely, IMHO, because the BOD wants to be partying too when the fun begins. If GF takes the money he profited from his trades during the past year and funds the CD redemption then that can hardly be considered negative. His last purchase of shares in the company occurred at .25 cents and the stock ran to $7.00. If we are equally lucky this time then we should be in for one hell of a ride.
So my only question is why are these people investing in this company?
I guess it isn't the ASSphalt, stupid!
DrRisk
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