EDFY:
PGDCEB scouting report:
Gap date: 4/6/98
Volume: 5,533,800
Gap date low: 10.75
Trading days to first signal: 17...4/30/98
Volume: 230,100...greater than each of the 5 previous days
Signal day low: 10.625
Signal day close: 10.875
Entry: 10.875
Indicators for exit:
8 day BB (Fib # closest to 1/2 of trading days to first signal)
8, 3, 5 stochastics (a stoch I mentioned a few K posts ago as good for short term top signals)
Stop loss rule (one tick below signal day low)
Exit:
14 trading days after the signal day, 5/14/98, price pierces upper BB
15 trading days after the signal day, 5/15/98, 8, 3, 5 stochastics drop under 80
Likely exit price: 13
% gain: 19.54
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Trading days from first to second signal: 22...6/2/98
Volume: 171,200...greater than each of the 4 previous days
Signal day low: 9.5
Signal day close: 9.75
Entry: 9.75
Indicators for exit:
13 day BB
8, 3, 5 stochastics
Stop loss rule
Exit:
Stop loss triggered 2 days after entry...6/4/98
Exit price: 9.4375
% loss: 3.2
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Trading days from second to third signal: 2...6/4/98
Volume: 246,500...greater than each of the 19 previous days
Signal day low: 8.75
Signal day close: 9
Entry: 9.125 (on the day after the signal)
Indicators for exit:
13 day BB (judgement call: since signal #3 appears nearly adjacent to #2, it is likely a double signal. Thus the use of days since signal #1)
8, 3, 5 stochastics
Stop loss rule
Exit:
Stop loss triggered 7 trading days after entry...6/15/98
Exit price: 8.6875
Loss:4.79%
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Trading days from third to fourth signal: 15...6/25/98
Volume: 388,900...greater than each of the 44 previous days
Signal day low: 8.0625
Signal day close: 8.625
Entry: 8.5
Indicators for exit:
21 day BB
8, 3, 5 stochastics
Stop loss rule
Exit:
4 trading days after the signal day, price pierces the upper BB. 8, 3, 5 stochastics do not confirm exit.
Upper BB pierced 5 consecutive days until 7/8/98. 8, 3, 5 stochastics drop under 80 and confirm sell signal 9 trading days after entry.
Likely exit price: 10.75
% gain: 26.47%
Avg gain on winning signals: 22.1%
Avg. loss on failed signals: 4%
Avg overall gain/trade: 9.05%
Avg. holding time: 8.25 days.
Commission costs not included.
Conclusion:
On-line discount broker recommended for EDFY in which case the system returns significant short term gains. 4 trades of $5,000 each would have returned $1800 in 9 weeks. 8 trades at a regular broker could have reduced this to $1200 or 24%. On-line commissions would reduce it to about $1700 or 34% overall. During this period the S&P 500 gained 4.91% The same $5,000 held in the index would have returned $245.50.
This concludes the EDFY PGDCEB scouting report.
Doug R |
