I think early Sept is a good read, but I am having trouble with Demand. With Intel's latest price cut, and coupled with bit growth approaching an average of 66-68 megabytes per system, it is making the TAM for DRAM pc100 in particular look extremely huge for Q4. Also,
50ns edo 64M is also tight and short since Intel decides on edo for their new 450nx chip set for Xeon for Servers.
We have to assume everyone is going to ramp the pc100 to take market share as they get the geometry down to .21um, but is this going to be more than the surprising demand for Q4?
I know several companies are quietly on allocation because of one reason, there is more demand than parts available. The large accounts will get the parts first then if any are left, the tier 2 accounts will get any left, but right now there are not enough to go around.
Now if you assume that is true, and not all suppliers can meet the current demand, then first a lead time develops, which there has not been one for a long long time. Once the lead time stretches beyond 4-6
weeks, then the customers will start increasing orders and start double ordering. sound familar? I am not saying this will happen, its
just a thought, since everyone is saying there is not a problem, I thought I would throw this in for what its worth.
Good trading. |
