dj--
a few things...
first, what does it tell you about an industry that it can not make money unless it closes down? the only thing that is potentially propping up spot (i say potentially because AICE is only confirm right now, and AICE isnt the most realiable) right now are holidays and a few closures. what happens when these plants open back up? what happens when they see MU going full tilt and decide what the hell, why not flood the market?
now, lets talk about some of your points...
>1-"The rise reflects a spreading Wall Street view that prices of memory chips, in
particular DRAMs, have finally stabilized.
I CARE MORE WHAT WALLSTREET THINKS, THEN ONE PERSON'S
THOUGH (INCLUDING MINE!)<<
well, you should care more about reality that wall st.'s version of it since you can make obscene amounts of money if you know more than they do. H&Q using AICE is a good indication that we do have better information than the street.
>2-" Spot market prices for memories, he says(Dataquest), remain below contract
prices, "
Dataquest HAS A DIFERENT OPINION EVERY WEEK.ALSO SPOT
PRICES HAS RISEN CONTRARY TO HIS SAYING.<
well, dataquest makes projections, but i think here he is talking about the present, in other words the facts at his disposal.
personally, and i think most of the people on the thread, even mike will agree i think<G>, if i see DRAM move up dramatically and stay there, and volume pick up dramatically, i will go long. it has nothing to do with hating MU, or any other emotion. its simply a matter of how we can make the most money. this 'firming in pricing' means just that...that the prices arent dropping or arent dropping as fast. this isnt really helpful.
>3-"overall DRAM capacity remains about 20% too high, Barring additional
plant closings, he says, overcapacity will continue into the year 2000."
THIS GUY NEED TO MAKE UP HIS MIND. FABS AND PLANTS ARE
CLOSING EVERY WEEK. LG SEMICON HAS STARTED CUTTING
PRODUCTION THIS MONTH, AND GUESS HOW MUCH CAPACITY
(SUPPLY) THEY ARE GOING TO CUT FROM THE WOLRLD MARKET?
20%.<
i think he factored in LG. additionally, i think LG is only cutting THEIR monthly production by 20%. stopping work for a few days is not going to cut 20% out of the world market.
its just too soon to knwo if things are in a real reversal, but i have a feeling on it...it isnt. MU will come back, i just dont think the time is right.
these analysts are trying to build a reputation for themselves. they all want to be the one who called the reversal in semis. its a kind of politics that has nothing to do with who is right or wrong. the problem is that even if they are wrong, they get to keep their jobs...if you are wrong, you could loose a lot of money.
good luck to all,
trey |
