William and all:
Boy if I had only listened to you!
"Folks, I can't say where this market is going, but I will warn you all not to be margined,
and not to have any investments that you don't feel comfortable holding if the market
continues to tank. I know Dell is a great company and I'm not saying otherwise, but that
doesn't mean it can't decline considerably. It is certainly not unrealistic that it may
decline below 50. I know this thought is repugnant to those of you who still believe in
the bull, but it's a realistic possibility, nonetheless. I'm not saying that it will continue to
tank; I'm only saying that you should be prepared if it does. Ask yourself this: What
would you do if Dell does go down to 50, 40, or less? How would you feel? If you can
weather the storm, great! But if you can't, then you better lower your risk exposure. If
the market continues to decline, then Dell will go with it regardless of the earnings it
reports. This is exactly what happened in 1995. And don't necessarily be convinced the
bull is still running if there are a few up days. There will be, but they may be just blips in
the declining chart. There were a few good days in the last 2 months of 1995, especially
at the beginning of December and toward the end of the year, but the trend was still
clearly downward anyway. Again, I'm not saying this is going to happen, only that you
should be prepared if it does happen. This market is spooking a lot of people who are
taking their profits out now while they still can (in their minds), and this will pressure the
market. I, myself, have decided to stay out of the market until mid-January, since
earnings times are usually more predictable (but not in October). Good luck to the rest
of you."
You were almost right! Dell did drop below 50, about 37, of course this is adjusted for a split. Don't you think saying basically the same thing at the risk of being wrong again is unwise??? I used to not be a believer until Dell just constantly kept doing the same thing. This is a hard stock to bet against and many people get burned doing it. You never hear of someone writing an article on someone who shorted Dell and is making a killing, do you? You DO, however, see articles on people (Kemble Matter) who have made a killing on Dell and can retire early.
Yes, we will wait and see, but I think everyone should load up now. It seems that when you posted the above message on Nov. 13, 1997 that it was the bottom and Dell started steadily moving up as it always does year in and year out.
I'm not saying I'm a genius. I just don't publicize my predictions at the risk of looking ignorant. You were very wrong before why do it again???
I will concede that I am long on Dell because I decided that it just keeps going up and they keep doing better and yes, this does make me biased.
Don't get me wrong, everyone's entitled to their own opinions, but I just like to point when someone has such a strong opinion that's been wrong before. How many times will it take to change your mind about Dell. Have you ever heard the expression, "If you can't beat 'em, join 'em." I think that's the way it is with Dell. You will not win shorting it, so you might as well go long and oh maybe double, or even triple your money in a year. Sounds good to me.
I'm finished rambling, just wanted to make you aware of your mistake last year in case you had forgotten. If I make a mistake in my posts feel free to correct me.
Good night and I hope you're wrong again on Dell.
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