Bill,
>>>>>> With most of the analysts bearish, the worst I expect to happen is more consolidation for the time being... at best we should start with a 200-300 point rally.<<<<<<<<<<<<<
I do feel that the market internals and some technicals are in position to continue this upswing taking the DOW to a maximum height of 8850 and 1120 on the SPX.
I sold my calls on FRI since I try to be disciplined and not hold over the weekend. Just a traders rule of thumb.
Unless the market internals improve dramatically, say NEW HIGHs gets into the 200 range, and the DOW does not exceed 8850, then I will short this rally with expectations of a retest. So I do hope it does run up hard as it did in the 6 days after the OCT dump.
If you are comparing it to the OCT dump, a hard runup would be near the end of that 6 day rally, and then a retracement occured but there was no retest of the lows.
On a subjective basis, I recall last OCT that many were lining up at the brokerages houses using the dump as a buying opportunity; however do not see that enthusiasm now. Also there is a lot more talk on the media of selling the ralley now, then there was in OCT.
A retest has good probability, then the key is whether it holds or not. If it holds it would give one technical hint that we may just be in trading range at a lower level.
Subjectively, I think that if there is a 200-300 point runup, it would come after a slightly negative day. Keep in mind that we have had 3 day in a row up and in OCT the day after the dump was flat and the next 2-3 days were down and then the big 225 point pop occured. So my guess is that today is flat to slightly down and tomorrow the up day.
Just a guess - doesnt really matter which day.
Seeya |
