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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM)
QCOM 159.59-3.9%3:59 PM EST
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To: Jim Lurgio who wrote (13510)8/10/1998 9:26:00 AM
From: Gregg Powers  Read Replies (3) of 152472
 
Jim:

While I am not trivializing royalties or judgments, I do not think that they are the important delta in the conflict since one time legal settlements with neither may us rich or poor in our investment. The real issue is one of strategy.

If ERICY "wins big" in Richardson, I believe it's strategy would be to use this as leverage to extract a W-CDMA license from Qualcomm. If it "loses big" then I believe that ERICY's 3G strategy is dead-in-the-water. I believe that this strategy is extraordinarily risky for Ericsson because its forward business plan is subject to the vagaries of a judicial process that with appeals and other legal maneuvering could drag on for years. Meanwhile Qualcomm, and its IS-95 adherents, will be able to evolve the standard and continue to grow rapidly.

Also its seems lost on many people the immaturity of ERICY's standard. The company is still trying to define "what" the standard will be and is therefore far away from having workable, commercial equipment. For example, I remember back in 1995, that a relatively modest "tweaking" of IS-95 cost Qualcomm (and the rest of the cdmaOne community) almost a year of additional development time...and this was for a standard that was well into deployment.

Best regards,

Gregg
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