1. Market pit rumors - The pits want to first of all clean out the people who have gone short the market opening. The market is now 1088 SPU; they would clean out the short on opening taking their cue from Europe.
2. In my opinion, the market would also like to test 1102 but pits also want to test 1080 today so this will be a range-driven market between 1102 and 1080. The kind of excessive pessimism in the market is indicative that there can be a short-covering rally. One needs to be careful in shorting this market.
3. As I indicated to Raj that although Rubin is not intervening, he will throw something to the traders, but the traders may take the Yen to 150 and beyond and intervention will be at the upper ranges between 149-153.
4. A Chinese devaluation is heavily rumored, but Chinese have a limited convertibility of yuan and the hardest hit will be Hong Kong. So, for growing export parity over Asia, the Chinese would have to have to think that their devaluation will not be the last. They might become competitive against Japan but other ASEAN countries will follow suit, rather, the markets will sell their currencies, but the second round does not have more than 5-10%.
I think the Chinese will still be looking heavily at Rubin and Japanese PM, Obuchi, but they will not intervene until they trap traders big.
This post has been dictated by Mr. Latif as he is tied up in meetings for the next couple of hours and will not be able to log in. Therefore, please accept my apologies in case of mistakes in numbers or text.
Samira
Asst. to Mr. Latif |
