It was just an example. I believe the picture will start to come into focus over time. Mail order pharmaceutical business is up something like 3,000% over the past 3 years... (forget exact time frame but it was in the thousands of per cent). Groceries, maybe the worst example of all. Point is new retailers fueled by trillions of $ in venture capital are literally inventing new ways of shipping products because their whole reason for being in business is the internet. Individual businesses may not all succeed but as a group this trend can't miss. How many people bought modems, plants, vitamins, etc. over the internet 3 years ago, and what will the total be 10 years from now?
I believe the broad trend is in Fedex's favor.
To the answer that the consumer doesn't want any of this, I suggest that it isn't the consumer's decision! People weren't clamoring for CD's, Windows 3.1, (you name it)...certain ways of moving inventory or standardizing industries seem to get shoved down people's throats if they are attractive enough to the right entrepreneurs.
AMZN is a $multibillion company with its traditional competitors like Barnes & Noble belatedly responding to its lead. When the dust settles I just know you'll be receiving more books in the mail.
Let us not forget the holiday season and perhaps the increased consumer demand for convenience and the increased distances between family and friends in an urbanized jet setting society. Combine this with the new power of 'search, categorize, learn, and select precisely what you need' of the internet...and you can see that the gifting by internet shopping business has not even gotten off the ground yet.
Finally, add to that the internet's power to ferret out the lowest priced wholesalers. People are finding discounts on computer equipment, bulk vitamins, books, and so on via the 'net and so there again is more shipped goods.
The Net Grocer could be part of this, though ultimately some others may knock them out. Some of those who shopped at Costco or Price Club or whatever for the lowest priced bulk box of toilet paper or whatever may find that they appreciate the ability to find some items on the Net at the lowest price and then just load up. Items like paint, bulk foods (if you're a health nut you get sick of paying the high prices), anything you use a lot of...the consumer is just loving the bidding war that gets touched off by ease of access to the lowest price and broader selection. ...of course to justify it you have to put in large orders...and no I guess Fedex won't get all the business.
Certainly Fedex stock isn't the best way to profit from this mega trend. I don't know what is but I suspect setting up a commerce server now and starting to sell stuff via your own private company is probably the best thing you could do. |
