Thank you for pointing out how wrong I was! Why don't we look at some hard facts. Let's look at the following Dell prices (http://charting.nasdaq.com/idc/nasdgraph.idc?usymbol=dell&umos=13 ):
8/1/97 --- 42 1/2
8/20/97 -- 43 15/16 - This was the so-called run-up in earnings last August. You can see that it was a big $3 (pre-split)! This was when growth rates were well over 100%, by the way!
11/10/97 -- 37 7/8
1/9/98 ---- 41 5/8
Note the price difference between 8/1/97 and 1/9/98! Dell was almost $1 higher at the beginning of Aug than it was more than 5 months later! Meanwhile, guys like yourself, Mr. Buetow, have been sitting around here babbling for more than 5 months about what Dell was going to do, when, in fact, it wasn't going to do anything. And you would sit here, for more than 5 months, with your detailed analyses, saying why Dell was soon going to break out of the doldrums. So now, what happened to those detailed analyses? Why didn't Dell continue to climb, just as so many of you have argued then and now? Btw, growth rates were well over 100% last year--certainly not true this year. In fact, growth rates are half of what they were last year, and that rate will continue to decline, as it must for all large companies. And as I said earlier, Dell is already 2 1/2 times higher than it was at the beginning of this year. Mr. Buetow, how much higher do you think it's going to go? It's growth rate is half of what it was last year, and yet, it has a higher p/e this year.
On the other hand, let's look at your posting of my quote. "I, myself, have decided to stay out of the market until mid-January" Was I correct here? Did I make the right move? Indeed, I have!
I'm not saying I'm a genius. I don't think anybody else is saying that either. I just don't publicize my predictions at the risk of looking ignorant. You were very wrong before why do it again???
I think your posting makes YOU look ignorant, Mr. Buetow. Why don't you explain how I was ignorant, when in fact, my forecast was very accurate. I was telling people to be cautious. I didn't say that Dell was going to tank, only that it could! And, in fact, Dell did tank, and there were a few people on the Dell thread who said that they were subjected to margin calls, so I don't understand how you reached your conclusion.
Mr. Buetow, I only post here once in a while. I say what I think will happen. I present my view so that other people can add to it or criticize it. But if you want to criticize it, then make it a critique that others can leran from. Present some hard facts, rather than just attack me personally. After all, how does a personal attack help the others here? I think I've been pretty good in my forecasts. And a lot of people here have said so, both publicly and privately. So lay off, Mr. Buetow. Present your own facts. Let's hear your prediction. Tell me what Dell is going to do over the next 5 months.
And like I have said many times before: We'll just wait and see what happens! Just as we have seen what happened last year! |
