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Pastimes : JESUS and FINANCIAL FREEDOM

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To: Jane Hafker who wrote (1031)	8/10/1998 5:03:00 PM
From: gregor	Read Replies (1) of 1283

There are some quantum shifts going on right now. I got out of junk bonds last year. The big if is the economy goes into recession, and the year Y2K is coming. Junk bonds do not correlate with treasuries very well. When the return of capital is overshadowed by the return on capital as in recessions and bankruptcies caused because cash short companies didn't get the Y2K problem fixed quickly enough; you really have the potential for disaster. I read an article on 1929 to 1935 . The utilities even lost 70 % of their value. Also the utilities in 1974 lost almost as much as the S&P did which was 40 %. So in a storm there are not too many safe havens. What keeps looking attractive to me on a shorter term basis is the energy sector, natural gas ect. If the S&p tanks it is still going to bring down just about everything with it so even here I am still waiting, waiting . The REIT's look cheap but I feel could still go lower. What I feel could happen in energy is we have a cold winter with La nina, in the northeast. A few -15 degree days in Jan could have a wonderful effect on oil prices. Looking forward keep watching the charts.It may be getting close to start establishing a position. Oil was down today. I might be very close to start putting a little into oil every day the market is down over 15 to 25 cents. Fidelity and Vanguard both have good enengy funds, both no load. Another area would be watch the international junk bonds, most funds are in country government issues only. Wait for the yuan to be de valued and this would probably mark the bottom of the cycle. Actually I would prefer the international junk over US corporate junk right now. Another area is of course the ^rut Russell 2000. Vanguard Explorer fund mirrors this fund but a 25 % drop in the S& P would take this one down another notch or two also. God Bless you sis ! The Lord will lead you and guide you; but err on the side of caution; these are truly perilous times in nature, right ? So stands to reason the financial arena is also in play. God Bless You.....gregor

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