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Technology Stocks : JDA Software
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To: Robert Knight who wrote (154)8/10/1998 7:34:00 PM
From: Dave Williams  Read Replies (1) of 371
 
Robert, I know you're bullish on JDAS, but analysts' Buy RATINGS don't drive a stock's price up, it's fund managers' Buy ORDERS that do. MSCO & DLJ's endorsements are nice, but the price drop was due to institutional selling and the price recovery will be due to institutional buying again. Fund managers sell first, ask questions later.

JDAS may appear to be a bit oversold, but that will only prove to be true if they actually hit the next 2 quarters EPS expectations (which they could very well do!). Buying below $18 is a fairly solid 2-year plan, but there still is a very real possibility of a lower price in next 6 months (fairly or unfairly).

The stock purchase announcement today of 20K shares by JDA executive management should be considered bullish. However, most of the top insiders exercised nearly all their then-vested options to sell at much higher prices (post split $27-$36 range) in the past 6-9 months or so, according to the 10-K. If the recent insider buying quantity was higher (more like 200K shares) I'd be a little more impressed with the insider's confidence. Perhaps not too many of them have any more vested options left to exercise until 1999.

I'm surprised that the Company hasn't announced a stock buyback plan.
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