Trey,
Shutdown, MU has no intentions of shutting down, thats why the stock will go up, they are going to milk this thing for what its worth just like last time. Dont get me wrong, they really should shut down, but
when 8mx8's are $9+ and your losing money from selling them at $7.50, it makes sense to sell all you can. Thats the premise that many say the Koreans shutting down wont help. If MU would shutdown and limit production somewhat it would bring stability to the market. If everyone gets greedy, then it will get nasty again.
The one difference that might help is more suppliers are hurting money wise and it may be difficult to turn on the fabs with deep uv steppers to get to .21um right away. Demand is going to be strong in Sept-Nov.
that will help. Some are saying tightness or shortage really wont happen till 2h99, and thats as accurate as anyones. Between now and then there is RAmbus, and several die shrinks, it will be interesting.
Good trading. |
