DJC:
Here is a bit of explanation as to how I compute( or guess at)
Dells price at earnings:
1. Dell proceeds upwards at ~$0.35 /day over last several years Computed from Jan 1 price, Dell should now be at $111 share
Conclusion -Dell is not overvalued
2. Dell investors have levels below which much buying will
occur.
The price will thereafter seldom drop below that level excepting a rare 'spike'
In March the level was $66
In June it was $84
In Aug it was $106
Thus it is highly unlikely that Dell will ever go below $106
Putting money where mouth is, I have recently invested
@ 28k at $106, $105,and $101 level
4. I estimate a minimum run-up to the earnings of $12 /sh
Very conservative, in light of an expected split
Since we got $3 today, we have $9 to go plus $.35 x the 8 days left and the result is $121.80 on earnings date
That SEEMS to me to be a bit high, but less is very livable
excepting for high strike calls
5. No way to allow for overall market optimism or tankings
Am not expecting much Dow optimism, but the techs are stronger
than expected, and Dell could go higher. Can break loose when its not expected. For example, the 'leak' of a sure stock split
and all bets are off.
6. I expect a hesitation around the $117,$118 level, those
(momentum players??) that had $118 in their pocket and failed to sell in July may tend to take profits.
7. Disclaimer: Let the reader beware. Caveat Emptor.The writer
has 97.8 % of his earthly liquid assets invested in the stock under discussion and some relatives own it also.
Sig
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